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Thread: Quilly Quarantine in Coronasville: Life in Interesting Times

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    Administrator Mike's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quilly Quarantine in Coronasville: Life in Interesting Times

    brain eating amoeba... I'm so glad this thread offers at least some comforting distraction from all the covid stuff
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    Mistress of Shadows High House Moon night faerie's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quilly Quarantine in Coronasville: Life in Interesting Times

    ok how about this... You know how the flu mutates into a new strain here & there? I understand one reason this thing is scarier than flu is that flu has been around for ages so we have a certain level of natural immunity to guard against it due to past experience.
    Last I heard COVID had mutated three times in short order. Once to jump from animals to humans, once to jump from human to human and now there are two different strains going around.
    So my thought is... if this becomes like the flu, it comes around once a year or so (even assuming we develop a vaccination)... what if with the next time around, those who got it this time around have developed a certain amount of immunity and do well but everyone who managed to avoid it this time around gets it bad next time around?
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    major major major major dark fuschia's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quilly Quarantine in Coronasville: Life in Interesting Times

    NF it's such complicated problem! More questions than answers right now Harriet's class is bring used as a case study for how it spreads in schools. Scientists worldwide are throwing every thing they've got at this. The organisation I work for is working on a vaccine and treatment. They are testing a vaccine on ferrets right now. They have also identified the anti body in peoplr who have recovered, so they can start learning how long people have immunity. And also test people en masse so we know who can go back to work etc. But all this stuff takes so much time. And mutations, complicate things ��But hopefully we will learn to manage it as well as we have done flu. And a year from now we will know much more.

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    major major major major dark fuschia's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quilly Quarantine in Coronasville: Life in Interesting Times

    I have to add. I am in the applied physics group so have no involvement, but we get a lot in internal updates that haven't been published yet.

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    Default Re: Quilly Quarantine in Coronasville: Life in Interesting Times

    Group immunity is one thing the Dutch are aiming for. Though I doubt it can be achieved without vaccination. Initially the government presented it as the way to go, and it shocked me hugely as the numbers they presented would just be impossible to reach safely, or as safely as possible. They toned that down later, but by then it had already cost me a few sleepless nights. But yeah, the idea is that immune people no longer spread the virus and in fact, stop it from spreading, so if you have enough people that are immune, the virus may jump to them and then be destroyed instead of getting ready to jump to the next. It means that if the virus jumps from person A to person B, it gets wiped out because person B is immune, and then person C, who may not have immunity, is saved by the immune system of person B. If there are more persons B than persons C the virus can jump to, then the virus will slowly but surely be wiped out, depending on how infectious it is.
    But it does require most people to be immune, either because they got sick and recovered, or because of vaccination. The more infectious a virus is, the larger the immune group needs to be to protect the vulnerable group. Corona requires far more then half of the people to carry anti-bodies to make this effective.
    And then question is, how long before a person loses his immunity (6 months, a year, never...)? How long before the virus has mutated into something our immune system no longer recognizes on first entry? And sadly covid-19 has a LOT more tricks up its sleeve then influenza viruses. And how many people have been infected REALLY since only a small portion gets tested and most people don't show any or virtually no symptoms at all, so what is the real spread rate? How many people are actually immune already?

    Trust on people to find vaccines, and trust on people to find effective medicine that might help those that do get sick, and trust the human immune system to learn to deal with it also. And for the (near?!) future, trust on artificial intelligence to help us find vaccines against viruses, same as artificial intelligence is already an aid in discovering various diseases in people, corona included.
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    major major major major dark fuschia's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quilly Quarantine in Coronasville: Life in Interesting Times

    Mike the Dutch approach was in the headlines here --- oh you heartless yet pragmatic Dutch

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    Administrator Mike's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quilly Quarantine in Coronasville: Life in Interesting Times

    There's been a lot of nuance since then. Luckily. Now the main aim is, like many other places in the world, to slow down the pace of this thing so hospitals can keep up at least. That part was completely overrun in the original announcement, so yeah... I wondered if I had woken up in some alternate reality where people had lost their minds
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    The Man On The Moon High House Moon Waffles's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quilly Quarantine in Coronasville: Life in Interesting Times

    Quote Originally Posted by dark fuschia View Post
    NF it's such complicated problem! More questions than answers right now Harriet's class is bring used as a case study for how it spreads in schools. Scientists worldwide are throwing every thing they've got at this. The organisation I work for is working on a vaccine and treatment. They are testing a vaccine on ferrets right now. They have also identified the anti body in peoplr who have recovered, so they can start learning how long people have immunity. And also test people en masse so we know who can go back to work etc. But all this stuff takes so much time. And mutations, complicate things ��But hopefully we will learn to manage it as well as we have done flu. And a year from now we will know much more.
    My friend Heang works at a lab that has developed those tests and she does all that pathology... hopefully we'll get to the peak here in a couple of weeks or so.
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    Default Re: Quilly Quarantine in Coronasville: Life in Interesting Times

    I keep seeing memes about people being stuck at home suddenly turning to bread-baking as a hobby. And dammit, I was doing that before it was cool! Today I made German volkornbrot, with fresh-milled einkorn and rye. It is very dense, and very much full of seeds, and since I made it with possibly too much sourdough starter, it's very, very sour. I think it requires some smoked salmon and cream cheese to round it out. Fortunately, I have those things.

    Anyone else have fun hobbies? (I also wove myself a blanket-shawl out of some lovely wool, but that was a project I had planned for quite some time... my loom is getting lots of use this month!)
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    Default Re: Quilly Quarantine in Coronasville: Life in Interesting Times

    Hobbies... Hobbies... I love to cook, but I hate spending time on it. Hate spending time on anything household-like. But what do I spend time on then?! I. Have. No. Idea.
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    Default Re: Quilly Quarantine in Coronasville: Life in Interesting Times

    I want to make my own bread though. I love fresh bread. Whenever it's in the house, I'll eat it, and then get into arguments because I don't eat the older stuff. But well... if I only get to eat day(s) old stuff, I'll never eat fresh bread again and that is just... NO WAY!
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    Default Re: Quilly Quarantine in Coronasville: Life in Interesting Times

    Yeah, I've been making bread at home for a couple years (Flour, Water Salt, Yeast by Ken Forkish changed my life) and i get pretty put out by stale bread. I find that toasting it kind of helps, but only up to about day 3 or so. So when I make 2 loaves of bread, one has to go straight into the freezer for maximum freshness. Fortunately, my partner is less fussy about the bread that way, and will continue to make sandwiches from it long past the point where I turn my nose up and declare it dead to me. Unfortunately, this has meant that when I make fresh bread on weekends, [i]sometimes[/] it tends to get gobbled up like candy.
    Your sense of self is defined by what you think other people think of you.

    I'm a militant Agnostic: I don't know and neither do you!

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    Default Re: Quilly Quarantine in Coronasville: Life in Interesting Times

    I have found that mushrooms cooked with garlic and cream softens the hardest of hearts, and stalest of breads.
    (I told you it was a mistake to let me have a signature.)

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    Default Re: Quilly Quarantine in Coronasville: Life in Interesting Times

    Quote Originally Posted by night faerie View Post
    ok how about this... You know how the flu mutates into a new strain here & there? I understand one reason this thing is scarier than flu is that flu has been around for ages so we have a certain level of natural immunity to guard against it due to past experience.
    Last I heard COVID had mutated three times in short order. Once to jump from animals to humans, once to jump from human to human and now there are two different strains going around.

    A couple of neat facts about this all.

    (1) The current seasonal flu (influenza) is a direct descendant of the Spanish Flu (1918), and yes it has a high mutations rate
    (2) The coronavirus actually has a low/slow mutation rate, confirmed in a study a few days ago that was published, so the expectation is that when we do get a vaccine it would last for years, and not an annual shot like influenza. When it jumped from an animal to us, it didnt mutate. And the "two strains" was some fud story that was corrected a week back. There are several (very minor) mutations of this virus -- and none of them are drastically different enough to require multiple vaccines.
    I wanna be like a goose and fly to new orleans for the winter and to canada for the summer.

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    major major major major dark fuschia's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quilly Quarantine in Coronasville: Life in Interesting Times

    Oh that is really interesting, thanks Buck. Also reasuring.

    As an update, one of Harriet's classmates came back positive with COVID-19 yesterday. The boy has been sick since 16th of March (sent home from school sick) but it had been diagnosed as gastro at the time. So its amazing how long between getting sick and getting diagnosed etc. No wonder thing virus is able to spread undetected so well. His famil is very stressed now as he has been in close contact with high risk categories (I am guessing grandparents or people with pre-existing medical conditions in the family) Please pray for them if that is your thing. Back on the 16th March - most of Australia wasn't even awake to social distancing concepts. How quick has all this happened???!!! Yesterday we went even further into lockdown - no public meetups bigger that two people or face big fines. Only allowed to leave the house for essentials. Schools and childcare still open though. But only about 10%-20% actually sending their kids (dependent on the area). As messaging is vague about whether or not they should go (currently it is optional and up to parents to decide and they have now set up online learning for most of the state)

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